This page will become a source of sanity against the absolute lies, manipulation, and drivel spouted by glassy-eyed, mouth-breathing MORONS like Pete Butt-Gauge.
EV means Electric Vehicle (a battery-only plug-in vehicle)
ICEV means Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (a gasoline-only powered vehicle)
What are the power requirements to replace all ICEVs with EVs?
Power needed for daily recharging of EVs in the United States
It will take HUNDREDS OF YEARS to convert the United States to electric cars!
Americans drove over 3.2 TRILLION miles in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
If every mile was driven solely by one of those Tesla Model 3s, that's 768 TeraWatt-Hours per year.
|3,200,000,000,000 miles × 240 watt-hours (Wh) per mile = 768,000,000,000,000 Wh = 768,000,000,000 kWh = 768,000,000 MWh = 768,000 GWh = 768 TWh per year.|
Spread evenly, that's an average of 2.1 terawatt-hours per day.
|768 TWh ÷ 365.25 days per year = 2,102,679,404,517.45 Wh per day ≈ 2.1 TWh per day.|
To put that into perspective, that's enough energy to transport Marty McFly back to 1955 more than 630,000 times!
The average size of a nuclear power plant in the United States is 1,049.28 MW.
That means that if everyone charged their cars over the same one-hour stretch, that's a peak demand which requires MORE THAN 2,000 NEW NUCLEAR REACTORS to be brought online.
|2,102,679,404,517.45 Wh ÷ 1,049,282,353 watts over a one-hour recharge = 2,003.91 ≈ 2,004 more reactors.|
It takes 80 months to complete a nuclear reactor, and if the worst-case scenario happened, where one had to be finished before the next one could start, then it would take 13,360 YEARS to meet the 2021 peak demand for EV charging.
|2,004 reactors × 80 months = 160,320 months ÷ 12 months in a year = 13,360 years.|
If we finished one reactor A MONTH (taking just 1/80th of the current time to build) then it would still take over 160 YEARS to get those built... and that won't be enough because more people will be around by then.
Most people don't like to wait a FULL HOUR to regain the ability to use a vehicle's maximum range... so if you wanted to reduce your charge time to 30 minutes, then the power generation would need to DOUBLE, requiring over 4,000 new reactors, and taking 334 YEARS to build at one per month.
Want to match the refuel time of good ol' gasoline at 5 minutes? Guess what that means? Multiply the original figures by TWELVE.
To achieve EV recharge to replace the energy used in daily driving in just 5 minutes — to match the refuel time of fossil fuels — you would need 24,048 NEW nuclear reactors built, and even if you built one a WEEK it would take almost 476 YEARS to reach that goal. Building only one at a time, using the current build schedule, that would be a staggering 160,320 YEARS!
So, to summarize...
There's a 0.00000% chance that the United States will go "full electric" by 2030.
(...or 2050, ...or 2090)
Inevitably EV zealots will always respond "It's ridiculous to assume that everybody will be plugged in at the same time", since EV enthusiasts think it's okay for you to completely re-tool your whole existence to overcome the horrible limitations of EV charging and wait HOURS for a recharge. EV evangelists always add "You don't have to change your schedule at all... just charge while you sleep.", ignorantly assuming that you'll NEVER need to charge your EV while you're awake. [facepalm]
So let's calculate the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM power requirement, making some GLARING assumptions, those being:
- We're going to spread out the annual load evenly, so that there are no spikes whatsoever
- We're going to spread out the daily recharge demand evenly over the entire 24 hours, so that at any given moment, the exact same number of vehicles will be plugged in and charging. The ONLY way to do this is to ration charging times so that you have your scheduled "recharge slot" where you get to charge your EV and if you miss it, you're walking.
(Under the above assumptions, total recharge time is irrelevant because we're spreading out the whole daily load as flat as possible.)
The math, if using the "each car is rationed to a particular 1-hour stretch, so that the load for daily recharge is perfectly and evenly spread throughout the entire day" scheme (one as unlikely as everyone synchronizing their watches for a globally timed mass-recharge), then you're looking at the 2.1 TWh needed every day ÷ 24 hours = 87.5 GW of continuous power draw. Since the average nuclear reactor puts out about 1 GW, then — at a MINIMUM — that's 88 reactors going full-blast 24/7 in perpetuity JUST to meet the LOWEST POSSIBLE demand for daily recharging.
As there are 93 reactors in the United States right now, that represents an absolute minimum of a 95% increase in reactors/reactor output. Since it takes 80 months to build a reactor (if the climate doom cult will even let you build one) it would take over 580 years if all 88 were built one-at-a-time, or if a reactor were started every other month without fail until all were completed, the 88th reactor would come online in February of 2050. (This also assumes zero new vehicles or drivers added to the 2019 total.) The fastest reactor ever built in the United States took 4 years and 2 months, and the last one brought online required 42 years and 9 months.
What are the material requirements to replace all ICEVs with EVs?
Let's do the math.
286 million vehicles are currently registered in the United States.
If all were Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus vehicles, then that's 286 million battery packs, all 50 kWh in size.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, EVs require 24kg of cobalt per 100 kWh of lithium battery capacity.
So that's 12kg per Tesla, or 2,432 kilotons of Cobalt.
|12kg × 286,000,000 = 2,432,000,000kg = 2,432,000 metric tons = 2,432 kilotons|
According to the USGS March 2021 report, 2,290 metric tons of cobalt was extracted, world-wide, with only 1,000 metric tons being metallic, the rest were trapped in oxides, hydroxides, salts, and other compounds.
So that means that at the production levels of March 2021, that would take 88.5 years of global cobalt production, just to meet the demand for US EVs today.
|2,432,000 tons needed ÷ 2,290 tons produced in March 2021 = 1,062.01 months = 88.5 years = 88 years, 6 months|
Nobody else on the planet gets to use any cobalt for nearly the next century... the full capacity of planetary production is used ONLY for EVs in the United States.
It will also take 100+ years of non-stop global Lithium mining to meet ONLY United States EV demand for full fleet conversion.
There are 286 million active vehicles in the United States, and the absolute best production year for Tesla was 300,000 units.
Tesla would have to keep up their all-time-high production for another 953 YEARS just to meet 2021 EV demand.
(That's assuming Tesla are the only ones making EVs. If they only produced 20% of EVs for US electrification, that's STILL 191 YEARS.)
Taking Tesla's 13-year 500,000 TOTAL EV production from the total, then those additional 285.5 million vehicles — if all were the base model of the Model 3 — would require 12.85 Megatons of lithium.
|285,500,000 vehicles × 45 kg of Lithium per 50 kWh = 12,847,500,000 kg = 12.8475 Megatons ≈ 12.85 Megatons|
As the all-time-high global lithium production was in 2019 at around 76.7 Kilotons... this means that we need 168 YEARS of global Lithium mining to meet the 2021 MINIMUM demand for EV batteries, and ONLY for the United States.
|12,847,500,000 kg current MINIMUM EV demand for Lithium ÷ 76,700,000 kg of global Lithium production = 167.50326 years = 167 years, 6 months, 1 day ≈ 168 years|
What if everyone isn't happy with a small passenger car for an EV?
What if everyone continues the (idiotic) trend of buying ever-larger, ever-more-expensive SUVs, crossovers, trucks, and other ungainly gigantic land barges?
So if all 286 million vehicles are instead gigantic SUVs and pickup trucks, then those battery packs would average around 200 kWh, so all numbers above would need to be multiplied by FOUR.
That requires over 350 years to mine enough cobalt, and over 670 years to mine enough lithium.
What has a lower total cost of ownership... ICEVs or EVs?
EV owners and enthusiasts will constantly repeat a myth by explaining that "EVs are cheaper to operate and maintain than a gasoline-powered car."
Are they right, or are they perpetuating a myth by ignoring a major cost item (or several)?
Let's compare what it would take to run an EV and an ICEV to 500,000 miles. After all, we're constantly told that "EVs last forever"... right?
To calculate the total cost of ownership (TCO), we're going to include vehicle purchase price, fuel system usage and maintenance, tires, motive powertrain maintenance, and fuel.
- For the EV's "fuel", we'll calculate using the national average electricity cost, which is 12¢/kWh as of the time of writing this.
- For the ICEV's fuel, we'll calculate using the national average cost of 87 octane gasoline, which as of the time of writing this is $4.59 (Let's Go Brandon!) (We understand that we live in Clown World™ right now... so we'll also calculate using the long-term, 5-year historical gasoline price trend of $2.50 per gallon... to give you an idea of what life will be like when the illegitimate usurper is ousted from the office he obviously stole.)
- The national average for driving is 14,300 miles per year.
For the EV, let's take the absolute cheapest model sold by Tesla - a 2022 Tesla Model 3 rear-wheel drive only model. It'll come in refrigerator white, with black interior, basic wheels, and NO SELF-DRIVING MODE.
Let's add up the numbers on the EV:
- Purchase Price: $46,990 (without tax, title, or license expenses)
- The number of sets of tires you'll need to travel 500,000 miles is 25 sets, and since the Tesla tires are custom-built one-off designs, they run $600 per set... for a total of $15,000 in tires.
- At 500,000 miles, the Model 3 will be on its FIFTH battery pack, which costs $16,000 each. The first one comes with the car, so you'll only be buying FOUR of them at $16,000 each... for a total of $64,000 in battery packs.
- The Model 3 consumes around 200 watt-hours per mile, so multiplying that figure by 500,000 miles gives 100,000,000 watt-hours, or 100,000 kilowatt-hours. Multiply by electricity cost and you get a total of $12,000 in "fuel".
What does that total?
That's 27.60¢ per mile.
Now for the ICEV we're going to choose one of the most popular cars sold of all time: the Toyota Camry. For the 2022 model year, the Camry gets a MINIMUM of 30 miles per gallon, so we'll use that.
Let's add up the numbers on the ICEV:
- Purchase price: $26,000 (also without TTL)
- For tires, you can get a $400 set of tires with an 80,000-mile warranty on them. So you'll need 7 sets of tires... for a total of $2,800 in tires.
- 500,000 miles divided by 30 MPG means you need to buy 16,667 gallons of gasoline. At the current national average of $4.59, that's a total of $76,500 in gasoline costs.
The figure at $2.50 per gallon is $41,667.
- We'll even throw in TWO full replacement transmissions at $5,000 each, for a total of $10,000 in powertrain maintenance costs.
What does that total?
That's 23¢ per mile.
For $2.50 per gallon gas, that's $80,467 for a per-mile cost of just 16.1¢ per mile.
To match the TCO of the EV, the ICEV would have to either get 12.60 MPG at $2.50 per gallon, or have averaged $5.96 per gallon for gasoline at 30 MPG.
However, if you get the Tesla Model 3 in a color you actually want, with the nice white interior, nice wheels, and the self-driving party trick, and you'd be spending $63,490 for the vehicle purchase price... bringing your per-mile operating cost 3.3¢ higher, for a total of 30.90¢ per mile... which is 34.35% more than the Camry at $4.59 per gallon, or 91.93% more than the Camry at $2.50 per gallon.
According to the website CarEdge, the Camry would actually cost a total of $8,167.83 to maintain for 500,000-miles. Additionally, the real-world mileage reported by tens of thousands of recorded fill-ups on the website Fuelly have the Camry getting about 35 MPG. Real-world electricity costs using Tesla Superchargers run between $7.80 and $15.60 for 300 miles of range, making the total for 500,000 miles somewhere between $13,000 and $26,000.
Re-running the numbers for the Camry using these more realistic numbers, and the total comes out to $26,000 for the vehicle plus just $8,167.83 for ALL maintenance, plus 14,286 gallons of gasoline — in Joe Biden's gasoline-hating mega-inflation Marxist agenda hellscape gas pricing model — $65,571.43... for a total of $99,739.26, or 19.95¢ per mile. Drop the fuel price out of clown world and back to reasonable economic policy pricing of $2.50 per gallon, and the fuel component drops to $35,714.29... for a total of $69,882.12, or 13.98¢ per mile, which is just 53% of the operating cost of the EV! Against the real-world, worst-case-scenario pricing for the Tesla Model 3 and the Camry is just over 41% of the operating cost of the EV!
To match the TCO of the EV using real-world data, the ICE vehicle would have to either get 9.31 MPG at $2.50 per gallon, or have averaged $9.40 per gallon at 35 MPG.
|Vehicle||Tesla Model 3||Toyota Camry|
|Scenario||Base Model||Fully Optioned||Base Model|
|Vehicle Purchase Price||$46,990||$63,490||$26,000|
||200 Wh/mi||200 Wh/mi||30 MPG||35 MPG|
|Fuel Cost||12¢ / kWh||14¢ / kWh||12¢ / kWh||28¢ / kWh||$4.59||$2.50||$4.59||$2.50|
|TOTAL COST of OWNERSHIP||$137,990||$138,990||$154,490||$168,490||$115,300||$80,467||$99,739||$69,882|
|Scenario||Fully Optioned||Base Model|
|Vehicle Purchase Price||$63,490||$26,000|
||200 Wh/mi||35 MPG|
|TOTAL COST of OWNERSHIP||$168,490||$69,882|